Retrospective cohort study on risk factors for developing ischemic stroke

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Ischemic stroke, Model, Modifiable and non-modifiable, Predictors, Risk factors


Background: There is a paucity of studies describing the risk factors for developing ischemic stroke in our region. Objective: The objective of the current study was to delineate the potential risk factors for the development of ischemic stroke. Methods: We have conducted a retrospective cohort hospitalbased study that has enrolled 231 subjects. The subjects have had presented to the emergency department in a tertiary hospital in the United Arab Emirates. Subjects were diagnosed with ischemic stroke within 24 hours of presentation. Outcome measure: The main outcome measure was the development of ischemic stroke during an indexed hospital visit. Results: The mean age was 47.5 ±3.2 with a higher preponderance of males over females (60.9%) and 48.1% were ≥ 65 years. The final logistic regression model for the development of ischemic stroke contains seven variables. In descending order, the seven predictive risk factors for the development of ischemic stroke were: hypertension (OR 6.1, CI 2.4-9.5; P = 0.029), coronary artery disease (OR 4.2, 3.7-9.1; P = 0.038), low physical activity (OR 4.2, CI 2.1-9.1; P = 0.035), history of previous stroke (OR 4.1, 1.4-3.4; P = 0.033), atrial fibrillation (OR 3.2, CI 2.6-8.2; P = 0.017), family history of stroke (OR 3.1, 1.3-6.9; P = 0.042) and diabetes mellitus (OR 2.7, CI 1.25-6.1; P = 0.035). The specificity of the model was 58.1%; the sensitivity was 86.1%, and the overall accuracy was 75.7%. Conclusion: It is prudent to control modifiable risk factors for the development of strokes such as hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, and low physical activity.

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